The broker says Amata's share price has already absorbed the change, but it has cut its fair-value estimate to Bt12.80 per share.
Amata's land sales so far in the third quarter total 184 rai, bringing its sales in the first nine months of this year to about 432 rai.
As a result, Amata will need to sell an additional 318 rai to meet its revised target, and the broker believes this is unlikely to be achieved. The company's dependence on large-scale customers, each with potential to purchase between 100 rai and 300 rai, is another obstacle, given the current investment climate.
The broker has reduced Amata's land-sales assumptions to 650 rai in 2006, 1,000 rai in 2007, and 1,100 rai in 2008. It has also lowered its 2006 to 2008 net profit estimates for Amata by 7 per cent, 22 per cent and 12 per cent to Bt921 million, Bt904 million, and Bt1.13 billion, respectively.
The broker says it projects gross domestic product growth of 4.25 per cent in 2007, but industrial estate land sales should slow in the short term before recovering significantly in the long term.
Source - Friday 29 September 2006 The Nations